Forecasting Detailed Courses of Action

Building on the rough COAs from Chapter 5 and the potential partners in Chapter 6, Chapter 7 introduces a structured approach to build and analyze detailed COAs that are both feasible, viable, and risk appropriate. Feasibility analysis captures the realm of what is possible physically, virtually, and cognitively. Viability analysis narrows the realm of the possible to COAs that are both adequate to achieve the objectives while keeping within an acceptable level of risk. It introduces a four-COA model – Groundhog, Implausible Deniability, Goldilocks, and Redline – to guide analysis across operational domains and ensure planners consider a range of enemy actions that culminate into multi-domain COAs.