An Increasing Misalignment Between Crop Distribution and Environmental Resources Under Climate Change in China

Understanding local environmental resources is key to easing resource pressure and achieving sustainable crop production under climate change. Using multi-source data and a crop model, the integrated environmental resource endowment, encompassing climatic conditions, blue water availability and soil properties, for maize and wheat, and how harvest areas align with these resources is quantified. Over the past 20 years, maize shifted northward with climate changes, while wheat's high endowment regions moved west but its harvest area moved east. Notably, both crops show increasing spatial misalignment with water resources, with about 84% of maize and 90% of wheat areas facing water scarcity and requiring extra water to maintain yields. This growing mismatch between where crops are grown and where resources, especially water, are abundant highlights the need for smarter, resource-informed crop placement and water management. Aligning crops with local environmental capacity represents an opportunity to ease pressure on finite resources, strengthen food security, protect ecosystems, and ensure long-term economic sustainability.