Markets Mitigate Land‐Use Competition From Energy Crops and Increase Farm Revenues

ABSTRACT Meeting the US Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge target of 35 billion gal annually by 2050 will require an estimated 380 million–700 million dry tons of agricultural biomass feedstock. This study evaluates the implications of large‐scale biomass production for land use, crop production, and market outcomes under mature market conditions. Results suggest that producing 476 million–843 million dry tons of biomass annually from agriculture would reduce cropland planted in corn, wheat, and soy by 8%–14%. However, convergence toward higher‐quality cropland raises per‐acre yields by 2%–9% relative to a business‐as‐usual baseline, limiting net production losses to 1%–3%. At the same time, farm market incomes increase by 20%–33%, whereas food price impacts remain below 1%. These findings indicate that substantial expansion of agricultural biomass for sustainable aviation fuel can be achieved with relatively modest impacts on food production and prices while also improving farm income.