Forecast models for road traffic noise with a 2050 time horizon

Road traffic is both a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and one of the main sources of environmental noise. While the reduction of CO 2 emissions in the transport sector receives increasing attention under the German Federal Climate Change Act, the long‐term development of road traffic noise receives far less consideration, despite causing health problems. This research paper examines the development of road traffic noise in Germany up to 2050, considering the planning and decision‐making processes currently under discussion. It also provides a tool for future urban planning from the perspective of noise control. Using the scenario technique, two future scenarios – a reference scenario (failing climate targets) and a stability scenario (achieving ambitious targets) – are developed. Scenario data are transferred into quantitative forecasts, forming the basis for calculating future road traffic noise. Forecast models are simulated, reflecting realistic planning situations in residential areas across different settlement structural district types. Noise immission plans are calculated for both current and future situations and compared. The comparative analysis shows only minor – in some cases barely perceptible – level differences. The findings indicate that road traffic noise will neither deteriorate noticeably by 2050 as a result of future developments nor improve noticeably as a result of additional climate protection measures.