Habitat Dynamics and Protected Area Effectiveness of the Endangered Paphiopedilum Subgen. Brachypetalum (Orchidaceae) Under Climate Change

ABSTRACT Paphiopedilum , owing to its high ornamental value and ecological sensitivity, has become one of the flagship groups for global biodiversity conservation. Our study focuses on Paphiopedilum subgen. Brachypetalum , employing the BIOMOD2 package to build ensemble models (EMmedian) that predict the responses and shifts of suitable habitats under LIG, MH, current, and future (2050s and 2090s under SSP scenarios) conditions, and overlaying these predictions with existing protected areas to assess their effectiveness for current and future conservation. The results showed that: (1) the ensemble models exhibited high predictive performance (AUC > 0.9 and TSS > 0.8), and mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9) and precipitation of the driest month (bio14) are the key driving factors influencing the distribution of subgen. Brachypetalum . (2) At present, subgen. Brachypetalum occurs mainly in three core regions: the southern edge of the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau adjoining northern Indochina, the Guizhou–Guangxi border, and the Yunnan–Guizhou junction zone. In future climate scenarios, the suitable range of subgen. Brachypetalum is projected to shrink (the area of highly suitable habitat projected to decrease by 75.85%–99.92%) and migrate northward to northwestward, centering on southwestern Guizhou Province. (3) Although existing protected areas provide partial protection for subgen. Brachypetalum , they are inadequate to fulfill conservation needs under future climate conditions. To cope with global climate change, we recommend establishing or expanding reserves or conservation sites in stable and highly suitable areas within the border region of Yunnan, Guizhou, and Guangxi, centered on southwestern Guizhou, to ensure the long‐term persistence of subgen. Brachypetalum under changing climatic conditions.