Phragmites australis and Argyrogramma albostriata Suppress the Invasion of Solidago canadensis in China Under Future Climate Change

ABSTRACT Global warming has significantly accelerated the invasion process and expanded the distribution range of Solidago canadensis . It forms a dominant monoculture in multiple regions via wind‐dispersed seeds and rhizome clonal propagation, posing a serious threat to agricultural productivity and biodiversity. The native Phragmites australis suppresses its expansion through ecological niche competition, while the specialized predator Argyrogramma albostriata significantly reduces its population density through feeding. This study used the MaxEnt model, which offers advantages such as high predictive accuracy, simplicity of operation, and short computation time, making it widely applied in research related to climate change and species distribution. By incorporating diverse environmental variables including bioclimatic factors, it simulates the potential distribution patterns of these species under current (1970–2000) and future (2041–2060, 2081–2100, SSP126/SSP245/SSP585 scenarios). Results indicate that under future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat of P. australis may synchronously cover the potential distribution range of S. canadensis as the latter expands, providing a spatial foundation for ecological niche competition control. The habitat of the exhibits a “tracking effect” toward the core invasion zones of S. canadensis (e.g., East China, South China), supporting the potential for specialized feeding control. Moreover, the logic of habitat overlap between these species and S. canadensis remains intact despite climate warming. These findings elucidate the S. canadensis invasion dynamics under global warming, providing a theoretical groundwork for establishing a synergistic control system integrating native plant competition and natural enemy regulation.