Temporal Evolution and Prevention Efficacy of Ritually Induced Fire Ignition Probability in Urban‐Forest Interface Zones: An Empirical Model Based on Forest Fire Risk Data From Kaifu District

ABSTRACT Urban‐fringe zones represent critical regions for forest fire prevention, yet culturally driven fire risks—particularly those induced by ritual activities—remain underexplored. This study proposes a Ritual Ignition Probability Model (RIPM) to decipher the spatiotemporal coupling mechanisms of wildfire risk in the urban–rural transitional areas of Kaifu District, Changsha, China. By integrating multi‐source data (2018–2022)—including ritual activity intensity, ecological factors, and resource allocation metrics—the model quantifies the synergistic effects of lunar festival cycles, fuel accumulation dynamics, and delayed response mechanisms. RIPM employs a Bayesian hierarchical framework to address data heterogeneity and incorporates cultural drivers such as ritual activity risk (R) to optimize risk prediction. Empirical validation demonstrates that RIPM improves prediction accuracy by approximately 30% and reduces emergency response time by 69%. Key findings reveal that 68% of historical wildfires originated from ritual activities, with 87% concentrated within a 1‐km buffer of urban boundaries. Policy recommendations include dynamic resource allocation (e.g., increasing fire suppression equipment reserves by 1.5× during peak ritual periods) and culturally adaptive governance innovations (e.g., designated e‐incineration zones). By bridging cultural practices and ecological vulnerability, this study advances wildfire risk management theory and provides a replicable analytical framework for global urbanizing regions.