Multi‐Country‐Multi‐City Characterisation of Heat Stress and Exposure in Africa

Read full text
Authors: Tobi Eniolu Morakinyo, Oluwafemi E. Adeyeri, Mojolaoluwa Toluwalase Daramola, Bobde Vishal, Kazeem Abiodun Ishola, Oluwafemi Benjamin Obe, Emmanuel Olaoluwa Eresanya, Akintomide A. Akinsanola, Charles Onyutha, Brian Odhiambo Ayugi, Patricia Nying'uro
Cited by: 1
References: 49

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study presents the first continent‐wide assessment of long‐term (1974–2023) summer heat stress in Africa using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) derived from ERA5‐HEAT reanalysis datasets. Employing a grid‐specific definition of summer, we analysed UTCI trends across spatial (continental to city scale) and temporal (decadal to hourly) dimensions. While annual UTCI anomalies range 0.2°C–1.6°C, substantial intensification emerges at finer scales. The frequency, duration and spatial extent of ‘very strong’ (38°C–46°C) and ‘extreme’ (≥ 46°C) heat stress have increased markedly, particularly, in the Sahel. Heat‐stressed hours (UTCI > 32°C) rose by 2%–25% across most countries, with extreme events doubling in 3–5 and 6–8 days episodes. City‐level analyses reveal escalating risks in large urban centres like Cairo, Lagos and Kano. As climate projections indicate further intensification, the findings underscore the urgent need for targeted heat‐health adaptation and early warning systems to protect vulnerable populations across the continent.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Urban Heat Island Mitigation Climate Change and Health Impacts COVID-19 impact on air quality

Publication details

Journal / source
International Journal of Climatology
Publisher
Wiley
Volume
46
Issue
8
Publication date
21 April 2026
Language
EN