The Social Amplification of Risk and Heuristics in Tourists' Traveling Intentions to Volatile Destinations

ABSTRACT In response to the challenges the tourism industry faces, including terrorism and political instability, this study investigates the determinants influencing travelers' risk perceptions and intentions to visit volatile destinations subjected to persistent negative media coverage. We draw from the Social Amplification of Risk (SARF) and heuristics frameworks and examine how negative affect influences travel intentions through risk perceptions, while accounting for the moderating effects of destination familiarity and travel type—traveling in organized groups versus as independent travelers. We analyzed data from 748 German tourists and found that negative affect reduces intentions to visit volatile destinations. This effect is more pronounced among travelers who are familiar with the destination and those traveling in organized groups. This study extends the SARF, enriches research on heuristic bias in tourism, and offers practical implications for the tourism industry and government officials in countries experiencing political volatility.