Integrating Ecosystem Services Into Landscape Ecological Risk Warning: An Empirical Study in Jiangsu Province, China

ABSTRACT Ecosystem services (ESs) are increasingly recognized as an important criterion for landscape ecological risk (LER). However, previous studies always concentrated only on the ESs or LER in regional management. To empirically test whether ESs‐based conservation can mitigate future LER, taking Jiangsu Province, China as a case study, based on the LER assessment method, InVEST model, bivariate Moran's I and Patch‐generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, five scenarios were set by the ESs hotspot areas, and an analysis framework of LER warning was developed. Results showed LER was characterized by a substantial decline in the dominant medium risk areas (from 78.8% to 52.9%) and a concurrent, dramatic expansion of moderate high risk zones (from 9.1% to 37.0%) in 2000–2020. Concurrently, food production, water yield, and soil conservation increased, while carbon sequestration and habitat quality decreased, and the LER and ESs showed a negative spatial correlation. Construction land would expand the most (over 3900 km 2 ) under the natural development ( S‐natural ) scenario in 2030, and the least (2807.62 km 2 ) under the integrated service protection ( S‐integrated ) scenario. Consequently, S ‐ integrated scenario yielded the smallest proportion of warning areas (high and moderate high risk zones), totaling only 29.3% of the study area, compared to 58.2% under S‐natural . This study empirically demonstrated that integrating ESs protection into LER warning could effectively mitigate future ecological risks and provide critical support for the high‐quality ecological development of rapidly urbanizing regions.