Regional predictions of subterranean ant Pheidole megacephala distribution based on a global ensemble species distribution model incorporating climate and soil temperature

BACKGROUND: Pheidole megacephala, a globally invasive ant species, poses a substantial threat to native invertebrate biodiversity and agricultural productivity. Predicting its potential spread is critical for managing future invasions. Although species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to forecast invasive species ranges, improved accuracy for subterranean species such as P. megacephala requires integrating habitat-specific variables, such as soil temperature, and employing multi-model approaches. This study aimed to evaluate the global and regional invasion potential of P. megacephala using an ensemble modeling framework that combines mechanistic (CLIMEX) and correlative (MaxEnt) models, enhanced with soil microclimate data. RESULTS: Both CLIMEX and MaxEnt models predicted high habitat suitability for P. megacephala across tropical and subtropical regions, including the southeastern United States, parts of South America, central and southern Africa, Southeast Asia, and portions of East Asia and temperate zones. In South Korea, inclusion of soil temperature data in CLIMEX significantly expanded the predicted suitable area from 65% (climate-only model) to 95% (soil-integrated model), especially in southern and coastal regions. Seasonal phenology analysis indicated that the period from April to October poses the highest risk of establishment and spread in international port cities. CONCLUSION: Our results demonstrate that incorporating soil temperature into SDMs greatly improves the accuracy of predicting suitable habitats for subterranean invasive ants. The combined CLIMEX-MaxEnt ensemble approach provides a robust framework for assessing invasion risk and identifying high-risk regions, offering guidance for early detection, surveillance and quarantine strategies, particularly near global trade hubs vulnerable to biological invasions. © 2026 Society of Chemical Industry.