Advancing the Sustainable Development Goals Through the Green Openness Index: Evidence From Environmental and Macroeconomic Dynamics in China

ABSTRACT This study examines the asymmetric and time‐varying drivers of green trade openness in China by constructing a novel Green Openness Index (GOI), which captures the ratio of environmental goods trade to GDP. Drawing on annual data from 1994 to 2023 and employing the Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) model, the analysis explores how economic, environmental, technological, and institutional factors shape China's green openness across different distributional levels. The empirical findings reveal that carbon emissions intensity, environmental taxation, and renewable energy consumption are consistently positive determinants of green openness in both the short and long run. GDP per capita and education exhibit significance only in the long run, whereas governance stability has a persistent negative influence. The interaction between environmental policy stringency and green innovation displays limited or conditional effects, suggesting the need for stronger alignment between regulatory frameworks and technological upgrading. Policy recommendations emphasize scaling up fiscal tools, expanding renewables, improving institutional quality, and investing in human capital to support China's alignment with SDG 7 (Clean Energy), SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure), SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production), SDG 13 (Climate Action), and SDG 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions).