Freezing Economies, Melting Futures: The Impact of Sanctions on Climate Adaptation Readiness—Panel Evidence From 68 Targeted Developing Countries

ABSTRACT This study is the first to empirically link international sanctions to climate change adaptation readiness in developing countries from a cross‐national time‐series perspective, providing systematic evidence of the geopolitical determinants of climate resilience. Using panel data for 68 developing countries (1995–2020) from the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND‐GAIN) and a two‐way fixed‐effects (2WFE) model, the analysis finds that sanctions significantly undermine adaptation readiness. UN sanctions reduce readiness by about 2.2%, followed by EU (1.3%) and US (0.9%) measures. Economic and high‐intensity sanctions impose the strongest institutional and fiscal constraints, eroding governance and financial systems essential for adaptation planning. These results reveal that sanctions—though intended for political or security objectives—carry unintended environmental costs by weakening adaptive capacity in vulnerable economies. The study integrates institutionalist and climate‐justice perspectives, calling for climate‐sensitive exemptions in sanction regimes and stronger regional cooperation to safeguard adaptation under geopolitical constraints.