Anti‐Globalization Dynamics and Africa's Structural Transformation: Identifying Avoidable Environmental Degradation Thresholds

ABSTRACT This study pursues a dual objective. First, it investigates the unconditional impact of anti‐globalization on structural transformation in Africa. Second, it explores how environmental degradation interacts with anti‐globalization to influence structural transformation. The analysis focuses on 52 African countries over the period 2005–2023. To enhance the relevance for policy formulation, anti‐globalization is examined through its implications across the economic, political, social, financial, and trade dimensions of globalization. These dimensions are captured through respective globalization proxies, with globalization uncertainty or associated risks quantified using standard errors derived from first‐order autoregressive (AR) processes. The empirical strategy is the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimations, which account for both simultaneity and unobserved heterogeneity. The results indicate that, in the absence of environmental degradation interaction, anti‐globalization positively influences structural transformation in Africa. However, to fully harness these gains, critical climate thresholds must not be exceeded. These thresholds, identified through interaction analysis, offer guidance for policy interventions aimed at maximizing the structural gains from anti‐globalization.