Sustainable Cities Under Pressure: Climate Risk, Oil Price Uncertainty, and Technological Innovation in GCC Countries

ABSTRACT This study examines the dynamic interactions between climate risk, oil price uncertainty (OPU), and technological innovation in shaping Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to Sustainable Cities and Communities (SCC) across Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries from 2005 to 2024. Using a panel Time‐Varying Interactive Fixed Effects (TV‐IFE) model complemented by bootstrapped quantile regression, the results reveal that climate risk progressively reduces urban sustainability, particularly in vulnerable and rapidly urbanizing areas. OPU demonstrates episodic but significant effects, with heightened volatility during events such as the COVID‐19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine conflict, Red Sea tensions, and the second Trump administration era, which disrupts fiscal capacity and delays sustainable urban investments. Conversely, technological innovation emerges as a key positive driver, increasingly enhancing urban resilience and inclusiveness over time. These findings underscore the importance of integrating climate and environmental justice into urban policies, diversifying fiscal resources to reduce reliance on volatile oil markets, and accelerating the adoption of digital and green innovations.