Is Geopolitical Risk Truly Harmful to Sustainable Development? The Role of the Clean Energy Transition

ABSTRACT This study examines the joint effects of geopolitical risk, natural resource consumption, and the clean energy transition on sustainable development in 17 emerging economies from 1995 to 2021. Using second‐generation panel techniques, quantile regression, Driscoll–Kraay estimation, and Kernel Regularized Least Squares, the analysis captures cross‐country heterogeneity and nonlinear relationships. The findings show that financial development and energy transition significantly improve the Sustainable Development, while geopolitical risk consistently reduces sustainability outcomes by weakening investment stability and clean‐energy deployment. Natural resource consumption exhibits nonlinear effects, supporting development at moderate levels but hindering sustainability under excessive dependence. These results highlight the importance of strengthening financial systems, accelerating renewable energy investment, and implementing geopolitical risk‐mitigation strategies to achieve long‐term sustainable development. The study contributes by providing an integrated nonlinear framework linking geopolitical risk, resource dependence, and energy transition in emerging economies.