Energy Poverty and Climate Shocks: Are Changing Weather Patterns Leaving South Africa in the Dark?

ABSTRACT Energy and climate change are deeply interlinked, with the latter exerting significant influence on energy demand and supply. In regions such as South Africa, where socio‐economic vulnerability is high, understanding how climate change affects energy poverty is essential to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly SDG 7 (affordable and clean energy) and SDG 13 (climate action). While the climate‐energy nexus has received growing attention, limited empirical work has explored how climate change affects multiple dimensions of energy poverty in South Africa using long‐run time series analysis. This study addresses this gap by investigating whether climate change exacerbates energy poverty, focusing on two dimensions: electricity access and a novel indicator, the electricity cost burden growth rate. The study uses annual average minimum, mean, and maximum temperatures, along with precipitation, as proxies for climate change. It applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to assess long‐run relationships using data from 1996 to 2023, given its suitability for small samples and mixed integration orders. The findings indicate that a 1°C increase in the minimum, mean, and maximum temperatures is associated with long‐run declines in electricity access of 2.86%, 2.50%, and 2.15%, respectively. Additionally, a 1 mm increase in annual precipitation in the current period is associated with a 0.083 unit decrease in the growth rate of the electricity cost burden in the short‐run, ceteris paribus. The findings highlight the need for climate‐informed energy policies that address both affordability and access, offering valuable insights for South Africa and other countries facing similar climate and energy challenges.