Agrivoltaic Lettuce Production Under Future Climates: A Sustainable Strategy for Optimizing Food and Energy Yields

ABSTRACT Food system resilience is increasingly challenged by climate change and global trade volatility, even in high‐income nations like Canada. Agrivoltaics—co‐locating crops and photovoltaics (PV)–offers a sustainable production strategy to optimize land use and address both food and energy security. While most agrivoltaic studies focus on current climates, this research evaluates lettuce production under simulated 2025 and 2050 climates using sealed biomes, integrating scenario analysis into agrivoltaic system design. Ten PV module transparencies were tested to advance innovative sustainable food‐energy systems, including semitransparent cadmium telluride (Cd‐Te) and crystalline silicon (c‐Si) modules. The 69% transparent c‐Si modules demonstrated the strongest adaptability among agrivoltaic treatments, achieving fresh weights of 269.4 (2025) and 245.6 g (2050), with select replicates exceeding control yields by up to 3.6%. Despite a 26.8% yield decline under the 2050 control, select treatments (e.g., 30% and 60% Cd‐Te and 69% c‐Si) limited losses, and the 40% Cd‐Te treatment even improved yield. Agrivoltaic treatments also enhanced water‐use efficiency and maintained strong physiological performance. Economic modeling under a hypothetical 25% import tariff scenario projects up to CAD $779 million in value for Canadian‐grown agrivoltaic lettuce, highlighting the role of such systems in circular food‐energy production, trade risk mitigation, and sustainable urban provisioning. This study demonstrates the viability of agrivoltaics as a climate‐adaptive, resource‐efficient production system within future sustainability transitions.