Covariate Adjustment for the Win Odds: Application to Cardiovascular Outcomes Trials

Covariate adjustment can enhance precision and power in clinical trials, yet its application to the win odds remains unclear. The win odds is a treatment effect measure related to the win ratio. Both measures are based on pairwise comparisons between individuals in the treatment and the control group, and count the number of wins, losses, and ties from these pairwise comparisons. Importantly, the win odds treats ties as half a win for each group. A priori, it is not clear how covariate adjustment can be implemented for the win odds. To address this, we establish a connection between the win odds and the marginal probabilistic index, a measure for which covariate adjustment theory is well-developed. Using this connection, we show how covariate adjustment for the win odds is possible, leading to potentially more precise estimators and larger power as compared to the unadjusted win odds. We present the underlying theory for covariate adjustment for the win odds in an accessible way and apply the method on synthetic data based on the CANTOS trial ( ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01327846) characteristics, on a subset of the HF-ACTION trial data ( ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00047437), and on simulated data to study the operating characteristics of the method. We observe that there is indeed a potential gain in power when the win odds is adjusted for baseline covariates if the baseline covariates are prognostic for the outcome. This comes at the cost of a slight inflation of the type I error rate for small sample sizes.