Changes of Potential Suitable Areas for Lynx Under Climate Change in Mohe Area, Daxing'anling Mountains, China

ABSTRACT The lynx, a nationally protected species in China, depends on prey such as roe deer and hares. Using 152 occurrence points and 12 environmental variables from Mohe, Heilongjiang, we applied the Biomod2 ensemble model to predict habitat suitability under climate change. Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface (MESS) analysis assessed model reliability in areas with novel climates. The ensemble model performed strongly (AUC = 0.956), identifying suitable habitats as low‐elevation, water‐rich areas with high vegetation productivity (NDVI), and moderate temperatures. Future projections indicate habitat expansion, with suitable areas increasing by 42.15% under SSP2‐4.5 and 30.9% under SSP1‐2.6 by the 2070s. Prey distribution and annual temperature emerged as key drivers of habitat suitability. These findings offer important guidance for lynx conservation, highlighting priority areas for protection and management in response to climate change.