Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of Sea Level Rise, North Coast, Egypt

ABSTRACT Climate change has a significant impact on the world, primarily through sea level rise (SLR), which causes flooding and erosion in vulnerable, low‐lying coastal areas, such as the Nile Delta. The study utilized the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in conjunction with the SimCLIM/Marine Climate Model to project SLR along Egypt's northern coast (ENC). Additionally, a spectral analysis of satellite images from 1985 to 2022 was conducted to assess shoreline erosion and accretion along the ENC. This analysis utilized the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) tool and the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI). Estimates of erosion and accretion levels were projected up to 2040. The study identified and forecasted inundated areas for various scenarios from 2020 to 2100 using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and modified Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation maps. By 2040, the regions east of the Damietta and Rosetta Nile branches are expected to be vulnerable to issues of erosion and accretion. According to the RCP 4.5 scenario, approximately 30.1 km 2 may be inundated by 2080, whereas the RCP 8.5 scenario predicts an increase to 348.1 km 2 , potentially reaching 738.2 km 2 by 2100. These data indicate that the ENC will become highly vulnerable to climate change under the RCP 8.5 scenario by 2080, whereas the RCP 4.5 scenario is unlikely to impact its current condition significantly. The study recommends implementing integrated measures, such as dikes, to tackle the challenges of low‐lying inundation. This study's findings enhance our understanding of shoreline evolution and refine our ability to predict future changes, enabling policymakers to develop effective policies that protect our marine ecosystem.