Exploring Interdependencies Between Identity and Resilience: Lessons from the War in Ukraine for the Baltic States

Abstract This study examines the interplay between social identity and societal resilience, focusing on Ukraine and the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) in the context of the ongoing malign external pressure and manipulation from Russia. By analysing Ukraine’s resilience to Russian aggression and its implications for the Baltic States, the research underscores the role of identity as both a strength and vulnerability in national cohesion. Using a multi-method comparative case study approach, the study integrates social identity theory and societal resilience theory to explore how identity forms under external pressure and influences resilience. Data were collected through expert surveys, focus group discussions, and document analysis, culminating in a simplified comparative matrix to compare identity and resilience factors across the four countries. The findings highlight that Ukraine’s collective solidarity, trust in institutions, and shared vision for the future fortified its resilience. Lessons from Ukraine emphasise the importance of inclusive identity frameworks, institutional trust, and proactive and whole-of-society resilience planning for the Baltic States to counter similar threats.