Nature-Based Solutions to Mitigate Coastal Erosion: A Modelling Approach Along the Mediterranean Coast

Abstract Nature-based Solutions are gaining recognition as viable alternatives to traditional coastal defenses, offering ecological benefits while addressing the challenges of a changing climate. However, current modeling practices often rely on deterministic approaches based on historical storm data, neglecting the dynamic impacts of climate change. The present study introduces a hydro-morphodynamic modeling framework designed to evaluate the efficacy of NbS in reducing coastal erosion under evolving climatic scenarios. Applied to a Mediterranean case study along the Sicily coast (Italy), the framework integrates SWAN and XBeach models to assess three NbS interventions: dune revegetation, seagrass meadow reconstruction and a beach nourishment. The performance of these measures is analyzed under present conditions and projected 4.5 and 8.5 W/m 2 radiative forcing scenarios, demonstrating their potential to mitigate storm-induced erosion while contributing to broader climate resilience strategies.