The Authoritarian Turn of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

In the mid-2000s, Israel was widely regarded as the Middle East’s only liberal democracy, while Palestinians had recently held elections widely considered free and fair. Two decades later, Israel faces challenges to its democratic status, and Palestinian democracy has sharply declined, with no elections held. This chapter examines why this “authoritarian turn” has occurred, its consequences, and its possible future trajectory. Drawing on data from leading democracy-rating indexes, it finds that Israel’s decline stems from illiberal legislation and growing authoritarian tendencies under Prime Minister Netanyahu. By contrast, Palestinian autocratization is driven primarily by internal political division and the ongoing Israeli occupation and blockade. The long-standing belief in a form of authoritarian stability in the conflict proved misguided, collapsing after the events of 7 October 2023. The chapter argues that this authoritarian shift has directly and indirectly contributed to the attack and the subsequent war in Gaza.