Rushing to the altar? Same-sex marriages when rights feel at risk

Abstract The literature on same-sex marriage has primarily focused on the effects of legal recognition, overlooking other factors that influence marriage decisions among same-sex couples. This study provides novel evidence on the role of political context by analyzing how the election of a homophobic leader affects these decisions. Using the case of Brazil, we examine the effect of revealed local support for the openly homophobic Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential elections on same-sex marriage dynamics. To estimate this effect, we apply a difference-in-differences approach with varying treatment intensity. The results show a significant increase in same-sex marriages in municipalities with higher support for Bolsonaro during the period between the election and the beginning of his presidential term. These findings suggest that perceived threats of rights restrictions can trigger immediate and significant personal decisions among minority groups, even in the absence of legal changes.