Overview of Forward and Inverse Kinematic Modelling of Subsidence and Its Challenges

Abstract In recent years, the mitigation of mining-induced damage has gained renewed attention. While subsidence from coal mining is declining in many regions, its importance is rising with the rapid growth of underground cavern energy storage. Despite this shift, significant gaps remain in the scientific understanding and predictive modelling of subsidence processes, particularly outside traditional mine-surveying communities. This article provides a comprehensive overview of current subsidence prediction methods, with a focus on European kinematic forward models and their often weak connection to measurable rock-mass properties. It critically examines both forward and inverse modelling approaches, highlighting their key strengths, limitations, and persistent misconceptions—especially the incorrect linkage between empirical parameters and true geomechanical behaviour. By clarifying these issues, the article lays a clearer foundation for developing physically robust forward models, which are essential for reliable inverse modelling and accurate long-term subsidence forecasting in both closing mines and emerging energy-storage facilities.