A steadily increasing trend in the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma in Akita Prefecture, Japan, through 2024

BACKGROUND: A population-based study of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) incidence in Akita Prefecture (2007-2014) revealed a surge beginning around 2010. Using the same registry, we extended the analysis through 2024 to examine recent EAC trends in the prefecture. METHODS: We used the Akita Prefecture collaborative, hospital-based cancer registry, which captures > 90% of cancers in the region. Registered esophageal cancers were histologically classified as squamous cell carcinoma, EAC, and unspecified neoplasm. Temporal changes in the number of and proportion of EAC cases, as well as the age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs; per 100,000 person-years, directly standardized to the 1985 Japanese model population), were estimated for 2010-2024. The estimated annual percent change (EAPC) was also calculated. RESULTS: The number of EAC cases increased from 38 (2010-2014) to 72 (2020-2024), and the proportion among all esophageal cancers rose from 2.3% to 4.7%. The ASR increased from 0.39 (2010-2014) to 0.45 (2015-2019) and 0.77 (2020-2024) per 100,000 person-years. From 2010 to 2024, ASR showed a significant upward trend (EAPC 8.37% [95% confidence interval, 4.32-12.57]; p < 0.0001), largely driven by men. CONCLUSION: Using the most recent data from Akita's hospital-based registry, we demonstrate that both the number and incidence of EAC approximately doubled between 2010-2014 and 2020-2024, indicating that the upward trend that began around 2010 has persisted.