Vegetation loss and climate-driven fragmentation in the Himalayan alpine ecosystem: an AI/ML-based LULC and carbon stock analysis

The Himalayan alpine (Kullu Valley) ecosystem is increasingly vulnerable to ecological shifts driven by climatic variability and anthropogenic pressures. Despite widespread recognition of this vulnerability, systematic long-term assessments quantifying land use and land cover (LULC) transformations and their broader ecological impacts remain scarce. Addressing this critical gap, the present study investigates two decades (2004–2024) of LULC changes and projects future trajectories up to 2044. The research uniquely integrates LULC dynamics with terrestrial carbon stock assessment and ecosystem service valuation (ESV), offering novel insights into the ecological and economic consequences of landscape transformation in the high-altitude Himalayan (Kullu Valley) region. LULC classification was conducted using high-resolution satellite imagery processed through a Random Forest classifier, achieving 93% accuracy and a Kappa coefficient of 0.98. Future LULC scenarios were modeled using both linear and polynomial regression techniques to capture linear trends and subtle non-linear variations (R² = 0.94–0.98). Climatic trends were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope method, while vegetation health was assessed via NDVI distributions. Carbon stock estimations and ESV calculations were integrated to evaluate ecological and economic shifts. Analysis revealed significant landscape changes between 2004 and 2024, including substantial reductions in forest (− 6.66%) and grassland (− 12.81%) areas, and expansion of snow cover (+ 7.95%). Forecasting models indicated continued declines in vegetative land by 2044. Parallel losses in terrestrial carbon stocks (609,000 Mg C in forests; 483,760 Mg C in grasslands) and ESV (from $801,537.5 to $730,745.5) reflect accelerating ecosystem degradation. Climatic analysis confirmed statistically significant warming and rising humidity trends, intensifying ecosystem stress as evidenced by NDVI pattern shifts. These findings underscore escalating ecological vulnerability in the Himalayan alpine zone (Kullu Valley), highlighting the urgent need for integrated conservation and adaptive land-use strategies to safeguard biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and ecosystem resilience.