Hydrogeological modeling and global climate change impacts on the last permanent sand-dune pond in the Doñana World Heritage Site: Santa Olalla Pond, Spain

Abstract The ongoing degradation of Doñana National Park (Spain), particularly its fragile sand-dune pond ecosystems, highlights the urgent need for effective and comprehensive conservation efforts. Santa Olalla Pond, once the only permanent pond in the park, has faced unprecedented drying events in recent years, reflecting the severe impacts of climate change and other hydrological challenges. This study addresses these challenges by developing a robust water level model for Santa Olalla Pond, using decadal hydrological data to analyze its behavior and predict its response to future climate change scenarios from 2030 to 2060. The results reveal a significant decline in the pond’s hydroperiod due to reduced precipitation and rising temperatures, consistent with its transition into a temporary pond from 2022 onward. These findings underscore the ecosystem’s increasing vulnerability and emphasize the critical importance of sustainable practices, improved water resource management, and proactive policies to preserve the ecological and cultural integrity of Doñana National Park.