Post-biopsy proteinuria as a universal prognostic marker across diverse clinical courses in IgA nephropathy

BACKGROUND: Although proteinuria is a key prognostic marker in immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN), the optimal post-biopsy timing for its assessment remains uncertain, particularly given variability in treatment type and timing. Using longitudinal data from the Japan IgA Nephropathy Prospective Cohort Study (J-IGACS), we sought to identify the post-biopsy time point at which proteinuria most reliably predicts kidney outcomes. METHODS: Proteinuria was assessed at baseline and at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months after biopsy. The primary outcome was defined as a ≥ 50% increase in serum creatinine or initiation of kidney replacement therapy in adults (≥ 20 years) and as a ≥ 25% decline in eGFR or initiation of kidney replacement therapy in patients aged < 20 years. Model performance was compared using the corrected Akaike Information Criterion. RESULTS: ; median proteinuria 0.64 g/day), 43 (7.3%) reached the primary outcome during a median 78-month follow-up. Proteinuria at all time points was independently associated with kidney outcomes, with the 18-month measurement providing the best model fit. A threshold of 0.44 g/day (or g/gCr) yielded 79% sensitivity and 81% specificity, and patients with proteinuria ≥ 0.44 g/day at 18 months had significantly worse outcomes. Cox regression confirmed a robust association for 18-month proteinuria, irrespective of treatment type or timing. CONCLUSIONS: Proteinuria measured 18 months post-biopsy showed the strongest association with long-term kidney outcomes in IgAN, supporting its use as a universal treatment target across heterogeneous post-biopsy clinical courses.