Ecological niche modeling under current and future scenarios for several Amazonian endemic vascular epiphytes

Abstract Given the ongoing climate change, information on species distribution is becoming increasingly necessary, particularly for species with restricted distribution ranges, such as endemic ones. We used ecological niche modeling to evaluate the distribution of 28 species of vascular epiphytes endemic to the Amazonia under current and future scenarios. We analyzed the climatic factors influencing current and future environmental suitability using MaxEnt (based on a set of three global circular models: EC-Earth3-Veg, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and IPSL-CM6A-LR from CMIP6 under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for 2090). We predicted that the current distribution of these epiphyte species is concentrated in Northwestern Amazonia, Central Amazonia and the Guiana Shield. In future scenarios, a decrease in environmental suitability is expected, with large gaps predicted for the Southern Amazonia. Species such as Anthurium vaupesianum (Araceae), Aechmea fernandae (Bromeliaceae), and Bifrenaria longicornis (Orchidaceae) showed increased environmental suitability in future scenarios. However, most species showed a trend of loss of suitable areas, resulting in more restricted and less continuous niches, as well as reductions in the southern and southeastern regions of the Amazonia. These results highlight the impacts of climate change on vascular epiphyte communities and reinforce the importance of monitoring these species in the face of ongoing environmental transformations.