Free-roaming cheetah conservation under predicted climate and land-use change in southern Africa

Abstract Anthropogenic pressures drive landscape transformation and climate change, which threaten habitat suitability and often perpetuates biodiversity loss. Wide-ranging behaviour in large carnivores typically conflicts with human activities driving population declines. Cheetah are particularly vulnerable, with the smallest remaining global population occupying only 9% of their historical range. This study aimed to define and delineate suitable cheetah habitat under current and future climate scenarios across southern Africa. Using multi-source presence records since 1980, we performed species distribution models for both free-roaming and managed reserve populations. Here we compare the relative loss or gain of projected suitable cheetah habitat to the established range and protected area network. Southern Africa currently supports ~ 1,6 Mkm 2 (52%) of suitable free-roaming cheetah habitat across Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe, of which 40% is included in the current IUCN range and 76% falls outside of formally protected areas. Temperature seasonality and human density were key determinants of habitat suitability followed by the proportion of bare- and shrub-land cover. Projections indicate that suitable habitat for free-roaming cheetah could theoretically increase by up to 20% under moderate emissions scenarios, but may decline by 5% under severe scenarios, while managed reserve habitat could shrink by 31–51% by 2070. We interpret these findings in the context of threatened species distribution and protected area mismatches in a changing climate which may threaten landscape connectivity. A pragmatic re-evaluation of regional strategies towards open-system conservation policies could utilise this climate-change driven opportunity to secure > 50% of the remaining global cheetah population.