Modeling Future Climate Impacts on Brazil’s Operational Wind and Solar Energy Capacity

Abstract Over the past decade, the Brazilian electricity sector has undergone a profound transformation, driven by the large-scale deployment of wind and solar photovoltaic power plants, a trend that is expected to continue in the years ahead. Although the transition to these variable renewable energy resources helps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the climate crisis, they are vulnerable to the very climate changes they help to avert. This study uses projections from CMIP6 global climate models under two future scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) to assess potential impacts on power generation in the existing centralized wind and solar power facilities in Brazil. The study innovates by assessing the effects of climate change on the future performance of the power plants using measured historical capacity factors as a proxy, thereby eliminating the need for climate bias correction and standardized manufacturer power curves. Projections indicate a nationwide increase in wind potential between 6% and 15% by the end of the century, contributing to an extended wind season in the northeastern region and a stronger seasonality in the southern region. In contrast, the photovoltaic potential reveals modest change; the positive effects of increasing surface radiation are counterbalanced by the negative effects of warmer air temperatures across the assessed scenarios. These findings offer valuable insights for strengthening Brazil’s energy security under future climate conditions.