A comprehensive risk assessment model for wind hazards on railway safety: a case study of China’s high-speed rail

Abstract The rapid expansion of high-speed rail (HSR) networks, particularly in China, has revolutionized national mobility while simultaneously increasing exposure to meteorological disasters. The extensive geographical coverage and complex topography of these railways subject them to frequent extreme weather events, especially strong wind conditions, leading to operational disruptions and safety concerns. However, existing meteorological disaster prevention systems along railway corridors remain limited, lacking precise risk assessment methodologies and reliable wind hazard forecasting capabilities. To address these challenges, this study develops an innovative and comprehensive risk assessment model for railway systems exposed to wind hazards. The proposed framework integrates meteorological, geographical, and operational factors, moving beyond traditional single-factor analyses. Results indicate pronounced spatial heterogeneity in wind-related risk across China’s HSR network. Several railway sections, particularly in high-altitude regions such as Tibet and Qinghai, exhibit elevated vulnerability to strong wind hazards, with wind speeds frequently approaching or exceeding operational safety thresholds. Temporal analysis further reveals that risk levels intensify during specific periods of the year, especially from March to May. Overall, this study provides a dynamic spatiotemporal assessment framework for evaluating wind-related operational risk in high-speed railway systems, offering practical support for railway safety management and strategic planning under strong wind conditions.