Fertility Desires Among Gender Minority and Cisgender U.S. Youth

Abstract This study investigates how fertility desires differ between cisgender and gender minority U.S. young adults, offering insights into the evolving landscape of reproductive aspirations. As more youth identify as gender minority individuals, understanding their fertility preferences is critical for grasping what families are desired in the future. Previous research has largely focused on cisgender individuals, leaving significant gaps in our grasp of the fertility desires of gender minority individuals, limiting insights into this growing demographic. Using nationally-representative data from the 2021 to 2023 Monitoring the Future survey, this study analyzes the fertility desires of 2,139 U.S. 12th graders, including 6% who identify as gender minorities. Descriptive and multinomial regression explore associations between gender identity and preferences for parenthood, childlessness, or uncertainty regarding fertility desires. Findings reveal striking divides: 30% of gender minority youth desire to remain childfree, compared to only 13% and 8% of cisgender women and men, respectively. Gender minority individuals also desire fewer children (1.57) compared to their cisgender peers (2.24 for men and 2.27 for women). These disparities remain the same after adjusting for socio-demographic factors and persist, albeit narrow slightly, once religiosity and political affiliation are controlled. Uncertainty about fertility desires, however, does not significantly differ. This research provides insight into how shifting gender identities may reshape societal norms surrounding parenthood.