Convergence in age-standardized population turnover across Italian territories

Abstract Migration shapes the pace of local population turnover, but its contribution varies markedly across subnational territories, reinforcing uneven demographic trajectories within countries. The present analysis investigates the intensity and drivers of local population change across Italy’s NUTS-3 provinces from 2011 to 2020. We apply a direct age-standardization of the Population Turnover Rate (PTR) and its Migration Share of Turnover (MST)—disaggregated into internal and international components—to enable spatially comparable measures. Provinces are classified according to the Eurostat DEGURBA (Degree of Urbanization) typology and contextualized using selected sociodemographic indicators. Using the β- and σ-convergence models, we assess whether provinces with low PTR in 2011 “catch up” to more dynamic areas and whether dispersion in MST narrows over the 10-year reference period. Our findings reveal a marked North–South gradient in standardized turnover rates, driven predominantly by internal mobility components but with notable contributions from international migrants in urban and intermediate provinces. Conditional β-models further identify provincial socioeconomic conditions as associated with changes in population dynamics. By decomposing PTR and applying convergence analysis, this study gives insight into the heterogeneous demographic trajectories of Italian provinces and underscores the persistent spatial inequalities that warrant locally tailored policy responses.