Shooting Down the Price: Evidence from Massive Shootings and Retail Property Values

Abstract This paper investigates the impact of massive shooting incidents on local retail property values. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that retail properties located near gun violence incidents experience an average devaluation of approximately 10% compared to their counterparts located farther away. Notably, when gun violence occurs within a retail establishment, the devaluation effect is more pronounced. The extent of the price reduction varies based on several factors such as the severity of the incidents, the community’s stance on firearms, and the level of media attention. Furthermore, we provide evidence that information asymmetry among investors can play a critical role in price distortions associated with gun-related crimes. However, the price discount persists in the short term, suggesting that the local retail market gradually recovers as public attention diminishes.