Predictable serendipity: how new tools turn serendipity into systematic breakthroughs

Abstract The emergence of scientific discoveries is often seen as the most extraordinary and puzzling feature of science. Many think that discoveries arise due to serendipity or chance—that they are unexplainable or unpredictable. Existing studies have not yet explained the extent and role of serendipity in science, because they generally only study a sample of discoveries that does not allow for generalising about science. To do so, this is the first study to assess science’s major discoveries, defined as all nobel-prize and major non-nobel-prize discoveries across fields and history. By examining over 750 major discoveries, we find that discoveries commonly labelled as serendipitous are actually sparked by using—for the first time—a powerful new tool that makes the unexpected observation possible that we are not even looking for: an improved microscope revealed cells, a discharge tube uncovered X-rays, gel diffusion revealed the Hepatitis B virus and a cutting-edge spectrograph detected the first planet outside our solar system. What seems like chance is often just using an entirely new lens—just as in each of these discoveries. In other words, we show that breakthroughs that seem serendipitous follow shortly after we create the new tool, with other researchers able to arrive at the same findings using these same discovery tools. While a serendipitous moment was reported in about one in six major discoveries, there is a pattern behind the surprise: using new tools to make the breakthrough finding commonly through exploratory research. This is important because it changes how we think about discovery: we can generally better understand individual serendipitous discoveries as tool-triggered discoveries that multiple researchers can make. Crucially, new method innovations provide explanatory power to help predict discoveries—whether labelled serendipitous or not. So here we reframe discovery: because new tools are what commonly unlock surprise, we can actually strategically design and accelerate discovery, shifting it from a more passive outcome of serendipity.