Bridging ecological function and social perception: mapping socio-ecological mismatches in Bucharest’s urban green infrastructure

Abstract Rapid urbanisation and the expansion of impervious surfaces are increasing pressure on urban green infrastructure (UGI), potentially reducing its capacity to provide regulating ecosystem services (RES) and contributing to socio-ecological inequalities. This study integrates biophysical structure, participatory mapping and population exposure to examine the spatial relationships between UGI availability, perceived RES provision and ecosystem disservices in Bucharest, Romania. Urban vegetation structure and RES potential were assessed using i-Tree Canopy, while citizens’ perceptions were collected through a Public Participation Geographic Information System survey involving 816 respondents. Spatial hotspot analysis, Random Forest and regression models were combined with a population-UGI classification to identify socio-ecological mismatches between existing green infrastructure, population pressure and perceived RES provision. Tree canopy covered approximately 18% of the city, whereas impervious surfaces represented the dominant land-cover type. Perceived RES hotspots were concentrated in the largest parks, while ecosystem disservices clustered along highly urbanised areas and major traffic corridors. Although vegetation cover was generally associated with positive RES perceptions, the spatial mismatch analysis revealed that several existing green spaces were not perceived as important RES providers. Moreover, neighbourhoods characterised by high population pressure and severe UGI deficits showed almost no overlap with perceived RES hotspots, highlighting areas of potentially unmet demand for RES. By integrating ecological structure, public perceptions and population exposure, the proposed framework provides a spatially explicit basis for identifying socio-ecological mismatches and supports evidence-based planning and management of multifunctional UGI in rapidly densifying cities.