Optimal Vaccination for Contagious Diseases with Seasonal Transmission

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Authors: Nir Gavish, Guy Katriel
Cited by: 0
References: 65

Abstract

We study optimal periodic time-dependent vaccination strategies for seasonal epidemics with waning immunity, aiming to minimize the basic reproduction number under a fixed annual vaccine supply. Our analysis, which does not pre-assume the structure of the vaccination profile, reveals that the optimal time-periodic vaccination profile typically alternates between intervals of active, time-varying vaccination and intervals with no vaccination. Within the active periods, we derive an explicit expression for the optimal vaccination rate. For a wide class of continuous seasonal transmission rate functions, we show that the optimal solution does not exhibit pulse components. In contrast, when the transmission rate exhibits upward jump discontinuities, such as those arising from school-term forcing, the optimal strategy includes pulse components. These theoretical findings are supported by numerical computations of optimal vaccination profiles across a range of scenarios.

Fields of Study & Subjects

SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research Hepatitis B Virus Studies Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research

Publication details

Journal / source
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
Volume
88
Issue
10
Publication date
2 September 2026
Language
EN