Trends in Work Capacity in the U.S. Population: Are Recent Cohorts in Worse Health?

The growth of longevity in the U.S. and other countries has increased interest in raising the age of eligibility for public retirement benefits. The consequences of this policy depend on the health of the older adult population overall and by socioeconomic group. In this paper, we estimate how multiple dimensions of health in older adults evolve over time and across cohorts, focusing on physical function, mental health, pain, and cognition. Our sample is individuals in the Health and Retirement Study who are aged 51 to 54 at baseline and are followed for up to two decades. We find that limitations in most domains have increased for younger cohorts, especially pain and cognitive impairment. People are more impaired in their 50s, whereas such impairment used to occur in one’s 60s. However, this appears to be a speeding up of impairment more than a long-term increase. Among people in their late 60s, health for later cohorts is similar to health for earlier cohorts. To evaluate the implications of these trends, we simulate the work capacity of adults just before reaching age 65 based on the health status of people at this age and the relationship between health and the labor force outcomes of younger people. Overall health among people at ages 62 to 64 remains high, despite impairment striking at younger ages. However, among people without high school degrees, less than half are predicted to have the capacity to work full time by age 62 to 64, and over a quarter are predicted to be receiving SSDI. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.