Do spatial spillovers in food insecurity exist within a country? An analysis of droughts, conflicts, and livelihoods in Somalia

Do spatial spillovers in food insecurity exist within a country? To address this question, a spatial analysis is conducted on Somalia, one of the world’s most vulnerable nations. The study examines the spatial effects of four key triggers of extreme food insecurity: droughts, violent conflicts, internal population displacements, and livelihood types. Biannual geo-referenced data from 73 districts, covering the period from 2015 to 2023, are analysed using spatial panel data econometric methods to uncover the complex dynamics of food insecurity within a country and across its districts. The findings indicate that severe food insecurity in Somalia results from the synergistic interaction of anthropogenic and natural determinants. Droughts and internal displacement heighten families’ vulnerability to famine, while rural areas possess limited coping strategies. Moreover, food insecurity spills over into neighbouring districts, further complicating mitigation efforts. The novelty of this study lies in its analysis of the spatial dynamics of food insecurity within a single Least Developed Country rather than across multiple countries (as the previous literature did). Policy recommendations include coordinating interventions across districts to effectively prevent and mitigate extreme food insecurity, expanding humanitarian assistance, implementing a comprehensive investment strategy to build climate-resilient food systems, and fostering peace and institutional capacity to support long-term development.