MMP3-based prognostic nomogram and risk stratification for vascular mimicry in oral squamous cell carcinoma progression

Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) severely affects facial aesthetics and the quality of life of patients. Although clinicians continue to improve diagnostic and treatment methods, they still cannot effectively improve the survival rate. Previous studies have found that Matrix Metalloproteinases (MMP2 \MMP9) can promote the formation of vascular mimicry (VM) in tumor tissues, but the relationship between MMP3 and VM in tumors tissues has not been clarified. In this study, we investigated the relationship between MMP3 and VM in OSCC tissues. Lasso regression analysis identified VM formation as an independent risk factor for patient prognosis. Subsequent survival analysis revealed a significant difference in prognosis between the VM-positive group and the VM-negative group (P = 0.00054). The constructed nomogram demonstrated that higher MMP3 expression levels were associated with increased risk scores and decreased 1- and 3-year expected survival rates. ROC curve analysis indicated excellent predictive performance of the model, with 1-year AUC = 0.906 and 2-year AUC = 0.970. Decision curve analysis (DCA) further confirmed the clinical utility of the model. Collectively, these findings suggest that MMP3 is a negative prognostic biomarker in OSCC. Research into MMP3 as a therapeutic target could represent a new and valuable treatment option.