Water balance dynamics reshape Baiyangdian wetland landscapes in xiong’an new area: a stochastic uncertainty framework

To achieve sustainable conservation and management of wetlands, this study investigates the influence of water balance dynamics in Baiyangdian (BYD) on the cyclical evolution of wetland landscapes from 1980 to 2020, as well as elucidates the driving role of key hydrological processes in wetland degradation. To accomplish this, a “process analysis–driver identification–uncertainty assessment” research framework was established. This framework facilitates a systematic investigation into how hydrological processes induce changes in landscape patterns and enables a quantitative evaluation of uncertainties associated with water balance states. This approach enhances our understanding of the mechanisms regulating water in wetlands and the factors contributing to their degradation. The results show that between 1980 and 2020, the wetland landscape underwent staged changes of contraction, recovery, decline, and stabilization, with the dominant mudflat gradually transitioning into marsh ecosystems. PLS-SEM analysis revealed that wetland landscape patterns were predominantly influenced by water balance dynamics: Recharge factors significantly promoted lake storage variation increases and wetland expansion, thereby enhancing landscape indices, while discharge factors suppressed lake storage variation, leading to wetland contraction and diminished landscape indices. Notably, Inflow emerged as the most substantial positive driver. Across distinct phases, both recharge and discharge factors exhibited marked uncertainties, with the uncertainty in lake storage variation reaching its maximum when $$\:Inflow$$ levels were elevated alongside reduced inputs from precipitation and evapotranspiration. The cyclical responses of wetland landscapes offer a foundation for elucidating uncertainties in hydrological driver interactions and establish critical linkages between water balance dynamics and wetland landscape evolution. These findings highlight the necessity of integrating basin management with multi-source hydrological replenishment strategies in water resource allocation and wetland conservation efforts, thereby ensuring the long-term sustainability and ecological integrity of wetland ecosystems.