Trade shocks and direct shipping connections: causal insights into network adaptability and supply chain resilience

Abstract Direct connections between trading countries in container shipping can shorten transit times, and reduce risk, thereby enhancing global transportation, and supporting supply chain performance. While transhipment services offer strategic flexibility, cost efficiency and geographical reach, direct connections tend to be more suitable for time-sensitive, high-value, perishable, or specialised goods thus being critical for certain commodities and trade contexts. Therefore, understanding and estimating container shipping lines’ decisions to establish or discontinue a connection is crucial when structuring and planning supply chains. This paper employs a causal framework and draws on a dataset that considers the UK and its trading partners from 2012 to 2020 to unravel the broader key determinants of direct container shipping connections. Following its validation through expert interviews and sensitivity analysis, the model is then used to simulate how direct connections may evolve under a significant trade flow disruption, achieving a 94% out-of-sample predictive performance. The model can support scenario analysis, inform contingency planning, and guide public–private initiatives aimed at strengthening the adaptability of global logistics under conditions of uncertainty. The results provide actionable insights for both policymakers and practitioners, offering a timely tool for anticipating changes in container shipping networks. Governments can integrate such models into national transport policies to proactively address potential disruptions in trade flows and enhance supply chain resilience.