Sustaining Disaster Risk Reduction in Shrinking Cities: Policy Evidence from Rikuzentakata, Japan

Abstract This study examined public support for disaster-related measures (risk awareness, memory transmission, prevention facilities, and information networks) in the long-term recovery phase of a disaster-affected municipality. Focusing on Rikuzentakata City, which was severely impacted by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, a stated-preference survey was conducted and analyzed using discrete choice models. Three research questions were addressed: RQ1 on the main effects of disaster-related measures, RQ2 on the interaction effects among these measures, and RQ3 on the interaction effects between disaster-related measures and economic-livelihood measures (ELMs). Stand-alone disaster-related measures and their within-domain combinations reduced public support, indicating dilution effects. By contrast, support increased when they were integrated with complementary ELMs. The policy implications are threefold. First, disaster-related measures should be implemented with caution in the medium- to long-term recovery process, as pursuing them alone may generate dilution effects. Second, integrated policy packages that combine disaster-related measures with complementary ELMs should be prioritized. Third, shrinking-city municipalities can better overcome fiscal and human resource constraints and enhance sustainability by leveraging complementarities across policy domains. Overall, the findings provide quantitative evidence that disaster-related policy must be reconceptualized as part of a broader policy portfolio. This insight has broader relevance for hazard-prone regions worldwide and offers international implications for long-term disaster governance in line with the Sendai Framework, the Sustainable Development Goals, and the Paris Agreement.