Spatio-temporal variation of ecosystem service values in response to land use/land cover changes: the case of Baringo County, Kenya

Abstract Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes due to human activities and natural factors significantly influence the variation in Ecosystem Service Values (ESVs). This study assessed the spatio-temporal dynamics of ESVs in Baringo, an Arid and Semi-Arid Land (ASAL) county located in Kenya’s Great Rift Valley, over 24 years (2000–2024). The Benefit Transfer Method (BTM) was employed to estimate ESV changes using LULC data for the years 2000, 2014, and 2024, alongside updated valuation coefficients from the Ecosystem Services Valuation Database (ESVD) published by de Groot and others in 2020. The analysis revealed a substantial decline in the total ESVs in Baringo County, from United States Dollars (US$) 25.70 billion in 2000 to US$14.92 billion in 2024, representing a loss of US$ -10.78 billion (-41.9%). This translates to an average annual ESV loss of approximately US$ -448.96 million. Forestland reduction emerged as the primary driver of this decline, whereas expansion of water bodies contributed positively to the total ESV in the study region. These findings underscore the urgent need to combat deforestation and forest degradation while promoting the sustainable management of water resources. Such measures are essential for reversing ESV losses and achieving key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), SDG 13 (Climate Action), and SDG 15 (Life on Land).