Adaptive online learning with LSTM networks for energy price prediction

Abstract Accurate prediction of electricity prices is crucial for stakeholders in the energy market, particularly for grid operators, energy producers, and consumers. This study focuses on developing a predictive model leveraging Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to forecast day-ahead electricity prices in the California energy market. The model incorporates a variety of features, including historical price data, weather conditions, and the energy generation mix. A novel custom loss function that integrates Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Jensen–Shannon Divergence (JSD), and a smoothness penalty is introduced to enhance the prediction accuracy and interpretability. Additionally, an adaptive online learning framework is implemented to allow the model to adapt to new data incrementally, ensuring continuous relevance and accuracy. The results demonstrate that the custom loss function can improve the model’s performance, aligning predicted prices more closely with actual values, particularly during peak intervals. The adaptive online learning framework achieves the best overall performance, reducing MSE, MAE, and RMSE by approximately 23.0%, 3.4%, and 12.2%, respectively, compared with the next-best model, namely the static model, which is trained once and kept fixed during testing. The inclusion of the energy generation mix further enhances the model’s predictive capabilities, highlighting the importance of comprehensive feature integration. This research provides a robust framework for electricity price forecasting, which offers valuable insights and tools for better decision-making in dynamic electricity markets.