Spatiotemporal dynamics of quantity quality synergy along dual pathways in urban household energy transition

The global carbon neutrality imperative has exposed critical limitations in traditional energy transition theories, particularly their linear progression assumptions in the face of nonlinear hybrid energy adoption dynamics in Chinese urban households. This study constructs a Quantity-Quality synergy analysis framework and develops a provincial panel data (involving 30 provinces 1995–2022) of to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of urban household energy consumption in China. Key findings reveal that: (1) The growth rate of per capita effective energy consumption (7.5% per year) is significantly higher than that of physical energy consumption (4.46% per year), with energy efficiency improvement driving the energy structural transition; (2) an electricity-dominant transition is emerging; (3) Temperature effect (− 8.66 kgce/°C) outweighs the contribution of income (2.17 kgce/$1000) and urbanization (1.03 kgce/1%); and (4) China's urban energy transition lies in the synergistic optimization of physical energy consumption growth and the effective energy efficiency gains. This study challenges conventional unidimensional approaches by proposing a collaborative governance path of "total consumption control and efficiency leap," providing a scientific basis for the design of differentiated regional policies. Six energy sources are classified into clean vs. non-clean, solid (low efficient) vs. non-solid (efficient), non-renewable, and mixed energy based on their attributes. The energy transition in Chinese urban households, dominated by mixed-energy systems, presents a case that challenges traditional theories of energy transition. The energy structure transition inherently involves the synergistic optimization of physical energy consumption growth (quantitative expansion) and effective energy efficiency gains (qualitative enhancement). The energy transition is influenced by income, urbanization level and temperature, though their contributions are different.