Exploring the drivers of flood risk perception among urban households in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

Urban flooding poses growing social and economic risks in rapidly expanding cities, yet limited empirical evidence exists on how urban households perceive flood risk and how such perceptions vary spatially within cities. This study examines flood risk perception and its determining factors among households in Ouagadougou (capital city of Burkina Faso), recurrently affected by severe flood events. Using survey data collected from 2,459 households across the city’s 12 districts, a composite Flood Risk Perception Index is constructed and analyzed in relation to socio-economic and environmental variables through multinomial logistic regression, complemented by spatial statistical analysis. The results reveal a heterogeneous and ambivalent perception of flood risk: while most households tend to underestimate the likelihood and potential impacts of flooding, the fear dimension reflects a heightened emotional sensitivity. Overall, 17.8% of respondents exhibit a high perception of flood risk, 41.6% a moderate perception, and 40.5% a low perception, with age emerging as a decisive factor. Spatial analysis identifies eight districts with significantly higher concentrations of perceived risk (p < 0.01). These findings highlight the importance of integrating public risk perception into urban planning and adaptation policies to enhance community resilience through targeted awareness, improved land-use planning, and vulnerability reduction measures. Study revealed significant spatial and socio-economic disparities in flood risk perception. Age, gender, income, and proximity to rivers are identified as key drivers of flood risk perception. Study exposed a contrast between emotional fear and rational underestimation of flood damage. Findings support the need to integrate flood risk perception into urban resilience planning.